13-Mar-2009 Tips

Nifty looks positive for today (Not for long time)
Calls
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- buy Tata Motors (Target 157) ==> Touches 154
- Buy Suzlon (Target 36)
- Buy SBI (Target 951 - Intraday only) ==> Target Achieved
- buy Pentaloon ( Target 122) ==> Target Achieved
- Buy TV18 (Target 58) ==> It touches 57.7 (Target Achieved - 58.6)
- Exit Sesagoa (if you have enough profit) (Target 73)

Citi execs sell shares worth $9.7 mn in two days

At a time when owning a Citi share costs you a little over a dollar, top executives of the battered entity have sold stocks valued at 9.7 million dollars in just two days.
City bank will be the SATAYM for US Economy. Read more

Five Stages of Grief: Kubler-Ross model

As we all know Kübler-Ross model ,written in book "On Death and Dying", describes five stages process to deal with catastrophic loss in life.

We have had same stages for world economy drop down to what we say is "Economy Crisis".
Following are the stages for Indian Economy:
1. Denial (Jan 2008 - Sept 2008) : Markets surprisingly resilient in face of recessionary pressures.
2. Anger (Sept 2008 - present): Dalal Street throws tantrum; markets crash.
3. Bargaining (Summer 2009): Bear market rally.
4. Depression (Fall-Winter 2009?): Sensex/Nifty will give back most of gains from rally; sits near 15-year lows as volatility and volumes decrease.
5. Acceptance (2010?): Market finally capitulates; Sensex/Nifty will rebound to an historically sustainable valuation of perhaps 16k points.

Note: The worst is that we appear to be in only the second/third of five stages of grieving and you can pretty much project the path the markets will take until the healing process completes itself. So, In third/forth phase real investors should start buying good stocks for 2010 rally.

Best Buy for short term

As i have mentioned before also.
Buy Spice Jet with target 33 in mind for 1 year.
Best Buy: Below 13 and above 10.
Target 25(1st Target), 28(2nd Target), 33(3rd Target).

- Exit all aviation stocks except this beauty.
I will update this blog with my analysis.

Market Trading at very low level in bearish mode

- European markets are heavily crashed so no chance of recovery in short days.
- One should not buy anything and if they have bought some position then its best to exit today only.
- ONGC corporate governance issue will provide base for a fact that all PSUs are having corporate issues and government is using that for wrong way.
- Next nifty level is 2507, 2486.....till 2180(My favorite level)
- Don't buy in load any scrip (especially PSU stocks, Banks, Real Estate better to be with Agriculture stocks like fertilizer, irrigation and CG)

Goldman Sachs reiterates 'sell' on ONGC

Goldman Sachs has reiterated a 'sell' on ONGC and has put a price target at Rs 574 per share. It has cited corporate governance issues with cash withdrawals by promoters as a concern. Read More on Moneycontrl.com article>>>

5-Mar-2009 Trading calls

For Safe Investor
- Buy SAIL (Intraday only – Strictly not for 1 week also.)
- Buy RIL (Target 1320 – 3 session)
- Buy Sterlite Industries ( Target 257 – Intraday, Target 263 – 3 sessions )
- Buy JP Assoc ( Target 4% up to CP – Intraday, 7% up 2 Sessions)
- Buy Alok Industries (Target 10% for 1 week)
- Buy ONGC ( Target 5% up)

For Risk Savvy
- Buy DLF (Target 162 – 2 sessions, Exit on Rise)
- Buy Punj LLyod (Target 76 – Intraday, Target 79 – 3 Sessions)
- Buy Dena Bank, Canara Bank
- Buy Aban Offshore ( Target 315 – 2 session) Risk Savvy Traders Only
- ROLTA:
o Surprise why I have written in capital?
o Something is cooking in this stock as this dropped very significantly in last 3 days.
o But don’t worry; you can buy it at this level or 4% down.
o We will see same upward jumps also after some session.
o Due to some reason and of course for getting some profit, stock is being hammered badly. We will see some rally today.

Stock Market Supporting News

- China’s economy figure, declared yesterday, and increment in Stimulus package, declared in Nov 2008, was proven like oxygen for all markets. Shanghais index was closed 6% up and European, US market was also trading in dark green mood. But we didn’t see that much upward rally in Indian indices as FIIs are still selling their holding from banking stocks.
- China had also confirmed some metal orders for current financial year. That has given base to all commodities metals (except gold & silver) and which results in commodities price increase yesterday.
- Precious Yellow (GOLD) and White (SILVER) metals are trading lower around $5 (Rs. 300) and Crude also jumped 4 to 5%. As we could learn from past experience that profit booking in Yellow metals will bring some buying interest in secondary stock market.
- Down fall in Rupee against dollar is the main reason to worry. But we saw that rupee closed up 47 pc after 7 sessions.
- RBI has cut Repo and Reverse Repo rate by 0.5% which was expected to be 1%. But RBI’s move is very good for long run. As cut in Repo and Reverse Repo will be good for short term but it will increase inflation in long run and also more rate cut is sign of bad economical condition.
- All banks have chance to decrease landing rate to some extent but they will enforce some strict rule before giving loans. So at low rate it will not be easy to get loans. All Private sector banks should decrease home loan rate at least 1%. Some have even started decreasing. But builders are expecting loan rate to go at 6% which should not happen as we don’t want crisis like US and low home loan rate will drag our country towards recession.
- Indian Export has increased 19% in Feb 2009 which also help us to reduce import which in turn drags dollar demand lower and hence we can see some Rupee appreciation.
- Today is the inflation rate declaration day and we may see slight drop in inflation (can be unchanged).
- Still waiting for LIC Cash Flow in Market which can come any time in March.

Your Ad Here

Conclusion
- Buy Metal, OIL & Gas, IT stocks but keep short term vision only.
- Don’t Enter into Bank and Real Estate stock for long term. Book profit on rise.
- Don’t enter into Steel Stocks as we will see Steel Price drop in short time so wait for 3 months before taking any position. Better is to book profit on short term bounce.
- My Nifty @ 2180 target is intact.

Market News

Something positive news for world Markets
- China's latest economic data(declared today) seems very positive which forced European markets to open in Green(China in Positive)
- European markets open positive and they have successfully dragged Indian Market into Green Signal
- Dow Future trading 1.5 to 2% positive
- China has increased its bailout package
- GOLD is falling continuously in indian and foreign markets
- Crude Oil increasing (4% up)


Stocks to watch (If Nifty is above 2618 then follow BUY calls)
---------------
- Buy Lanco Infra below 115 and above 110
- Will see some more selling in HDFC
- Buy JP Assoc
- Buy Metals
- Exit IT Stocks
- Exit all bank stocks especially private banks as PSUs are trading near to bottom only(FII will sell this)

4-Mar-2009 Trading Stock Tips

As mentioned yesterday 2618 is the support for Nifty. It was closed near to that yesterday. As per chart indication, Market should open with some +ve movement and if you have any position and you are having profit then try to book your profit as positive movement will not going to sustain. More bad news on desk to come.

Some tips
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- Keep your eyes on European Market also.
- Nifty: If trades below 2618 then it may touch 2570 today and in reverse direction it should not go beyond 2652.
- March/April will be the worst year in Indian history.
- Bank Of India: See some good movement today (for Traders only)
- Rcomm: It can touch 126 level (With 110 as ultimate target). But its good buy opportunity for medium/long term.
- Buy IVRCL Infra with target of 111 (don't go for long position) - SL 99
- Buy Cipla
- Tata Steel: Target 143
- Aban Offshore: On positive movement exit. Ultimate Target 246
- On rise exit Bharat Forge With Target 77(Intraday - but if market trades below 2618)
- Short SAIL (Future) on 5% rise: Cash ultimate target 62
- Buy GVK Power Below 17.3 (Good Long Term Bet)

Buy Suzlon Energy

As i mentioned today morning about buynig suzlon energy and we got news that Suzlon had got the contract of 100Mw backed by world Bank for china. (Read my today's post)
- Buy rating is still there and will get movement of 10% in this stock in 2 session.

3/Mar/2009 Trading Call

- DOW/NASDAQ is on 12 years low so we can't have great position in BSE/NSE also. We will also see that levels ( 6017 SENSEX, 2180 Nifty) for sure.
- Exit RPL in any case as RPL is having zero valued share. Because in the end RIL is the entity who will decide what is the price of RPL. Suppose at the end RPL is at 90 and RIL is at 800 then also you will get 1 share for 16 RPL and hence RPL valuse will be 50 even share price is 90. So best is to switch your self to RIL and book profit in RPL if you have any.
- Tomorrow/Day After Tomorrow will be the +VE day for indian/asian market.
- So on deeps traders can buy good stocks which was bitten very badly on last 3 to 5 sessions.
- Nifty should touch 2618 today if not then we can see short up rally.
- Don't enter for long position in any Bank Stock as all FII will exit from Bank stocks. ===> Target Achiieved - touched 2618 today
- NOTE: Don't buy any stock for more than 1 month horizon because as per latest news crisis is going to be a long way. None can say exactly but it should go beyond 1.5 to 2 yrs. So we will have ups/downs in this market for that period. So Traders will have a best opportunity to earn money.

- Short Term Call (Buy call if Nifty trades above 2618)
1. Buy SBI (Target 5% to 7%)
2. UBI (Target 10%)
3. Suzlon (Target 7.3%)
4. Exit Reliance Infra on up rally because below 418 it will go to 328
5. L&T Exit will touch 500
6. On deeps buy BHEL (Risk Savvy investor only)
7. Buy Colgate, HUL

2-mar-2009 trading calls

Stock Calls
- Exit RIL (It may touch 1130)
- Exit HDIL, India Infoline, Titan (Large drop triangle)
- Book Profit ni Bharat Forge(It may touch 102 but don't wait for that target)
- Buy PSU banks (SBI, Dena Bank, Indian Bank, BOI, PNB) on 5 to 6% drop (No more downside in Banks - Can g maximum 5% down)
- Buy Agriculture/Fertilizer stocks for 3 months
- GMDC around 34 level (Wait its 6 months bet)
- Buy TVS Motors on 5% to 10% drop. (Target Achieved: it's up 10% on 3rd March)

Index Calls
- 2602 level crucial for Nifty once its broken then 2509 and then 2467 are the next target. See long term market is looking BEAR so take care while we see some upside movement otherwise you will be trapped.
- My ultimate target for Nifty till Aug 2009 is 2180.

RIL & RPL Merger Analysis

Reliance Industries (RIL) merger with Reliance Petroleum (RPL) Analysis
- Today’s is the RIL board meeting for RIL and RPL merger.
- RPL SEZ status will be intact
- Post merger, Promoter stake in RIL will come down to 47%.
- Chevron has confirmed selling his 5% stake in RPL to RIL because he believes that refined product is not that attractive due to low demand.
- Merger is having ratio of 16:1(RPL: RIL) and which is in favor of RPL Investor not for RIL investor.
- No Tax relief to RIL

Conclusion:
- Performance of any companies will no be affected
- Creating value for Share Holder as its Dhirubhai strategy
- Flexibility, Financial position and Cost Efficiency will result out of merger
- If RPL is above 71 then try o to book profit and buy RIL directly from market on lower rate as its trading lower today.